Egg Price Fluctuations & Bird Flu — Forecasting

Context

Supply-side commodity shocks from animal disease outbreaks create forecasting and scenario questions for economics and markets analysts.

Method / approach

Modeled supply-side commodity price shocks via regression and time-series analysis in R, examining lag structure between H5N1 outbreaks and egg prices and reviewing equity responses for related producers.

Tools and technologies

• R
• Regression
• Time-series analysis

Key deliverables

• Forecasting-style scenario analysis

Results / findings

• Identified a 2- 3 month lag between H5N1 outbreaks and Grade A egg price surges.
• Documented equity responses in the analysis for Cal-Maine (+18%) and Vital Farms (+12%).