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Data & Analytics

Egg Price Fluctuations & Bird Flu — Forecasting

Regression and time-series analysis linking H5N1 outbreak timing to Grade A egg price surges and related equity responses.

Role: Analyst

Situation

Supply-side commodity shocks from animal disease outbreaks create forecasting and scenario questions for economics and markets analysts.

Decision question

Regression and time-series analysis linking H5N1 outbreak timing to Grade A egg price surges and related equity responses.

Data and constraints

See method and results below for sample, coverage, and documented limits.

Method

Modeled supply-side commodity price shocks via regression and time-series analysis in R, examining lag structure between H5N1 outbreaks and egg prices and reviewing equity responses for related producers.

Tools

  • R
  • Regression
  • Time-series analysis

Deliverables

  • Forecasting-style scenario analysis

Outcome / decision value

  • Identified a 2- 3 month lag between H5N1 outbreaks and Grade A egg price surges.
  • Documented equity responses in the analysis for Cal-Maine (+18%) and Vital Farms (+12%).

Links

GitHub URL — add in content-data.tsLive demo URL — add in content-data.tsReport PDF — add in content-data.ts